Susan Sheakley remembers that, years ago, she would see American Kestrels throughout her birding walks through Orange County; now she sees very few. Five hundred miles to the north, Nancy Wenninger is seeing changes in her native garden that are curious. “Some plants are blooming earlier, some are blooming more,” Wenninger says. “The timing of the arrival of some birds also seems to be changing.”

Audubon researchers predict that climate change will threaten 170 California bird species with extinction in the coming decades. But these changes likely will be just part of a much broader ecological transformation. According to Sandy DeSimone, director of research and education at the Audubon Starr Ranch Sanctuary in Orange County, understanding these ecological changes will be key to conserving birds and habitat in the future as the climate changes.

“Birds are just one part of an interconnected ecosystem,” explains DeSimone. “If one part of that system changes, the effects could be significant.”

With the help of volunteers, DeSimone has been tracking these larger ecological changes at Starr Ranch, and has launched pilot projects with two Audubon chapters, Sea & Sage Audubon Society in Orange County and Mt. Diablo Audubon in the Bay Area. Sheakley and Wenninger are the conservation chairs for these two chapters, respectively.

The USA National Phenology Network defines phenology as “seasonal changes in plants and animals from year to year, e.g. flowering, emergence of insects, migration of birds.” Since not every species or region responds to climate change at the same rate, ecological “mismatches” can occur.

For example, a bird migrating early might not find the insects or flowers it needs at its destination. DeSimone says she may have found just a bird at Starr Ranch in March, a newly arrived Grasshopper Sparrow, dead from apparent starvation, possibly because none of its food was available when it arrived two months too soon.

DeSimone is calling her pilot project BirdSeasons California. All the data collected by the project will be uploaded to the USA National Phenology Network’s citizen science database, which is aggregating information from across the country to help identify larger trends.

For Sheakley, the project is a perfect fit for the Sea & Sage Audubon chapter, whose members are already doing a great deal of citizen science, and who have been eager to engage in climate change in a way that they can make a difference.

“Climate change can seem beyond the scope of what a single person can do,” she says. “This project brings it down to a personal experience, something we can observe. If there are affects from climate change, we will observe them and document them.”

Mt. Diablo Audubon’s Wenninger says that her members took to the project immediately.

“I’ve been impressed by the enthusiasm of these volunteers,” she says. “One thing I really like about it was that these 20 or so people on the project are all new volunteers.”

DeSimone, always the scientist, is reluctant to associate any individual event or anecdote to climate change. Ecological systems are always prone to fluctuations, and the drought has made things even more unpredictable. The influence of climate change, she notes, will only be comprehended over time, as data from BirdSeasons California grows.

The long time-frame doesn’t intimidate Sheakley one bit.

“We understand the nature of citizen science,” she says. “We’re assuming that this will be a long-term project.”

(photo of an American Kestrel by nebirdsplus)